Moving from Grudging Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”