🔗 Share this article

A mere eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or a cause for the team's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After the England international curled home his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?

This is a particularly tough question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.

As per the data, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for Rogers to save the day with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more when facing the Red Devils.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club must confront in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.

• The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
• The winger might become the force he was during his peak.
• The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.

Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.

This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.