🔗 Share this article

For a brief period, the former US president appeared to embrace a strong approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing threats of "significant ramifications" in August if Vladimir Putin persisted hindering truce negotiations, he finally imposed substantial penalties on the Russian two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly hindered the Russian leader's capability to finance his aggression in the region.

Yet, through his newly presented comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, that was drafted by US and Russian diplomats without Ukraine's or European input, he has apparently reverted to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's proposal would essentially favor the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", large portions of the proposal effectively weaken that very independence. What represents a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his corporate background, Trump seems to view the Ukrainian conflict as a basic land disagreement, as if ceding Russia a part of Ukrainian territory will appease the president. However, Putin's war is not only about dominating a charred area of deindustrialized territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to eliminate it so it no longer serves as an enticing model for the Russian people of the accountable leadership that his growing autocracy denies them.

Land Concessions

Although freezing in place the currently split regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would require the nation to abandon the entire this eastern territory. Beyond rewarding Russia with area that its military have been unable to occupy in over a decade of warfare, this surrender would make Ukraine's military defenses dangerously undermined.

The area is the location of the nation's well-known "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that constitute a essential barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, providing Putin a unobstructed way to the capital in case he eventually decide to renew the war.

Defense Limitations

Additionally, in a move that would make additional hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would require the nation to reduce the numbers of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 troops to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's initiative places no such restrictions on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's attempts to depict the nation's legitimate leadership as radicals, the proposal states: "All radical doctrine and practices must be rejected and banned." Seemingly to underscore this element, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump sets no condition that Putin endanger his regime by allowing votes in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

Certainly, the proposal includes Russia commit not to "enter other states" and to "establish in law its position of peaceful relations towards European nations and Ukraine". But considering that Putin has violated comparable accords in the previous instances – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to honor the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its historical nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a restoration of occupied areas in the Donbas to Kyiv – why should the international community trust Putin on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western security guarantees. Although the plan warns of a "strong unified defense action" in case Russia renew its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the details vary from unclear to alarming. The proposal would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also preclude member states from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the reassurance force, presumptively led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from replenishing his diminished forces, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

International Response

A separate supplementary accord apparently would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any later "significant, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a defense action. However in contrast to a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's primary deterrent against additional Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would rely on the dedication of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to react with force to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not